World Association reports on global steel demand forecasting have long been the basis for decisions by industrial investors and international commodities. In this memo, we will avoid analyzing the World Steel Association and other reputable news outlets to evaluate the global steel outlook. Please stay with Artan Press until the end.
*** Steel demand forecast from analysts’ point of view
In a detailed report on the global market situation last week, the World Steel Association predicted that steel demand would grow by 5.8% to 1.874 billion tonnes in 2021. Steel demand forecasts gained high accuracy in estimates after falling by only 0.2% in 2020. The impact of the coronavirus is likely to be minimized next year.
*** International Steel returns to the boom circuit
According to the World Steel Association, in 2022, steel demand will grow by 2.7% to 1.925 billion tons. Estimates show that there is a significant improvement in China’s economic indicators. This is enough to make the steel demand forecast for the coming years clear and promising. China produces more than half of the world’s crude steel. China’s steel demand grew by 9.1% in 2020, but global steel demand is expected to resume gradually as the impact of health risks that began in 2020 diminishes.
*** Steel demand forecast from China perspective
Although China has shifted its global steel demand forecast quantitatively and qualitatively, we have seen a sharp drop in demand over the past year. In the rest of the world, demand fell 10 percent last year and is still not fully offset in advanced economies. The Corona crisis epidemic continues to cause significant uncertainty for the rest of 2021. Therefore, predicting steel demand in the current situation is very difficult and challenging.
*** Improving steel demand in 2022
In advanced economies, steel demand in 2022 will still be lower than in 2019. In the coming years, steel demand is steadily improving. This is very likely in both developed and developing countries. Therefore, the path of global steel market analysis shows that the steel demand forecast shows that demand will continue at a faster pace in the coming years. For most developed economies, however, a return to pre-Corona levels is expected to take several years.
*** China; The main player in the realization of steel demand forecast
Forecasting steel demand in the coming years is strongly tied to China‘s economic performance. China’s economy quickly recovered from stagnation and inactivity in late February 2020, and was soon able to cope with the Corona crisis. China’s GDP growth will reach 2.5 percent in 2020, which is an unanswered conundrum in the world in the corona. China’s economic growth this year is projected to reach 7.5 percent, according to the latest changes. This index is projected to reach 5.5% in 2022. The growth of China’s economy will definitely boost the global steel market and significantly increase demand in this market.
*** China supports the steel economy
Work on China’s new infrastructure projects in the wake of the post-Corona economic stimulus, backed by steel, continues rapidly, although for 2021 onwards, real estate investment growth may be due to guidance The Chinese auto sector – typically the second largest steel consuming region after manufacturing – cut production by just 1.4 percent in 2020, the government said.
*** Steel Association optimistic view of steel demand forecast
But after evaluating China’s economic performance, it is not bad to look at other countries and the huge differences between China and other developed countries. Steel demand in developed countries will fall by 12.7% in double digits in 2020. If countries can not strengthen their economic performance in 2021, we will see a decline in global demand in the steel market. Therefore, the forecast of steel demand depends heavily on European and Asian countries. But the World Association is optimistic about steel demand.
*** Significant growth in steel production in 2022
According to the reports of the World Steel Association, in 2021 and 2022 we will see significant growth. Steel demand forecast shows that in these two years, steel demand will grow by 8.2% and 4.2%, respectively. However, steel demand in 2022 will still be lower than 2019 levels.
*** US position in meeting steel needs
In the United States, where the major infrastructure budget is allocated by Congress, short-term improvements in steel demand are limited by a weak return on the non-residential, construction, and energy sectors. The automotive sector in the United States is expected to adjust its economic indicators in the steel sector. Therefore, the forecast for steel demand shows that the United States will also improve its demand for steel next year.
*** The fragile state of European steel boom
The position on the EU process cannot be stated with the confidence that was said about China and the United States. In the EU, improvements are expected to be good in 2021 and 2022, with improvements in all steel-using sectors, especially automobiles and public construction initiatives. Corona has left optimistic data on steel demand forecasts on the Green Continent shrouded in ambiguity.
*** A look at Iran’s steel performance
The World Steel Association, in addition to reviewing developed countries, has also paid special attention to the performance of Iranian steel. The World Steel Association announced that Iran’s steel production in February 2021 compared to the same period in 2020 increased by 11.5 percent to 2.3 million tons. Iran is projected to grow by 3% in domestic steel demand by 2022. The forecast for steel demand in Iran shows that Iran is determined to return to the peak of steel production.
*** The role of construction in meeting the demand for steel
Global construction – the largest consumer of steel – is projected to return to its 2019 level in 2022. This follows a 3.9 percent decline in global construction production in 2020, equivalent to a significant drop from the 1.9 percent recorded in 2009 after the global financial crisis. The return of investors to the construction sector will raise global steel demand forecasts with optimism and provide green signals to the sector.
*** Automotive industry and the future of the global steel market
Internationally, the automotive industry has seen the deepest decline among steel-consuming sectors, according to the latest report in the World Steel Association. However, the automotive sector is expected to recover sharply in 2021, driven by tighter demand due to the elimination of quarantines and a return to normal life, especially in the United States. The world can also return to its 2019 level in 2022. If this happens, the forecast for steel demand in the automotive sector will also act as a driver for growth in market demand.
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