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The impact of the economy on the dollar price shock

شناسه : 46295 ۰۵ اردیبهشت ۱۴۰۰ - ۱۲:۳۰
The dollar price shock in recent months has caused many problems in all goods and services markets in Iran. Unfortunately, the lack of stability in the dollar exchange rate has hampered investment, supply and demand decisions. The result has been nothing more than a severe recession in the markets.
The impact of the economy on the dollar price shock
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The price of the dollar is one of the most important factors in drawing the economic outlook in Iran. In recent days, shocks from the Iranian political market have caused the dollar exchange rate to change. The price shock of the dollar in the current situation, even if its outlook is down, is not good news for any of the domestic markets because the market is drowning in recession and these fluctuations will deepen this recession. In the following, we will review and analyze the latest price shock of the dollar. Please be with Artan Press.

*** Dollar price shock from the perspective of economic factors

Economic calculations regarding the behavior of the dollar exchange rate in relation to economic factors show that the real exchange rate of the dollar can be as much as half the current price of the dollar in the market. Considering the ratio of Iran’s inflation to the world and the price of the dollar in 1989, the price of the dollar should be 9,500 tomans. The average annual inflation rate in Iran in the last 31 years is 21%, which is 16% without taking into account the shock periods. Excluding the inflation rate caused by the price shock of the dollar, the exchange rate compared to 1989 should be 3000 tomans. Therefore, exchange rate fluctuations in the current situation have no exact economic justification.

*** The dollar is the main player in inflation in the Iranian economy

The dollar price shock in the Iranian economy is the main and key factor in creating high inflation. Unfortunately, Iran’s economy has shown a strong dependence on the exchange rate in recent years. Studies show that all periods of high inflation rates are followed by currency shocks. In the current situation, the growth of the dollar price will weaken the markets, and on the other hand, the decrease of the dollar exchange rate will cause inflation expectations to decrease and the markets to be more involved in the recession. In the current situation, the price of the dollar must become real and the government must pursue policies to support the foreign exchange market for an acceptable period of time in order for the market to return to its original path.

*** Dollar price shock; Lack of pricing roadmap

The point to consider in the current situation is that the dollar price shock has caused real rates to be challenged to target the dollar. However, with different base years, different results are obtained for determining the exchange rate. With the base year rate of 1356, the dollar rate is 3700 Tomans (without the years of currency shock: 1400 Tomans). In 1380, 12800 Tomans (without years of currency shock: 6100 Tomans). Meanwhile, the president had talked about the recent rise of the dollar to 15 thousand tomans. Therefore, the price shock of the dollar has caused challenges in determining the real price of the dollar.

*** Evaluate the latest developments in the foreign exchange market

But it is not bad to evaluate and monitor the latest situation of foreign exchange market prices. According to the latest news from the foreign exchange market yesterday, the cash dollar exchange rate in the open market reached 23,900 tomans without changing the price compared to Thursday. The cash euro was sold with an increase of 50 Tomans, 28 thousand and 750 Tomans. The selling rate of dollar banknotes on the national exchange board was announced with a decrease of 37 Tomans, 23 thousand and 333 Tomans. Although the dollar price shock has not been seen in the market in recent days, the shadow of Borjam negotiations on the dollar and currency exchange rate is heavy.

The gold market is affected by the dollar price shock

The coin market is not stable due to the price shock of the dollar and the ups and downs and the kind of unsettled atmosphere of the foreign exchange market. Emami cash coin compared to Thursday, experienced a decrease of 33 thousand Tomans and was announced with the figure of 10 million and 41 thousand Tomans, and the price of each gram of 18-carat gold decreased by 7 thousand and 200 Tomans, the figure of one million and 8 thousand and 400 Tomans. Recorded. An ounce of gold traded unchanged in world markets at the same price of 1,791 dollars and 28 cents. Gold prices are more immune to the dollar price shock than other markets. Because the stability of the global gold rate and ounce in the international market has prevented the unbridled gold rate in Iran.

*** The latest exchange rate status in Nima system

But despite the relative and imperceptible decrease of prices in the open market, we have witnessed a slight increase in the price of the dollar in the Nima system. The price shock of the dollar and the pressure of supply in the open market are less seen in the market of industries and traders. Therefore, in these circumstances, importers prefer to continue their trade despite all uncertainties. Yesterday, among the announced remittance prices in the Nima system in the report related to the previous working day, the selling price of the UAE dirham remittance increased by 26 Tomans to 6,269 Tomans and the selling rate of the Chinese Yuan remittance increased by 59 Tomans to 3,622. Toman was sold. The selling price of the Turkish lira remittance decreased by 529 tomans and reached 2,830 tomans

*** Divergence of half dollar and free market dollar

The rise in the price of the dollar by half due to the price shock of the dollar in the open market began in the first days of May. So that the purchase price of Nimai dollar remittances in the report of the working day of May 2, with an increase of 622 Rials compared to its previous working day, showed the figure of 229,149 Rials. This has continued to this day, and the half-dollar exchange rate has maintained an upward trend, quite imperceptibly, in contrast to the free market flow. The selling price of these remittances was also reduced by 1,829 Rials, with a price of 230,447 Rials. The weighted average weekly buying and selling rate of text money dollar remittances decreased by 200 Rials yesterday compared to Wednesday’s report and reached 230,775 Rials.

*** Dollar price shock damage to the economy

The dollar price shock, both positively and negatively, is detrimental to the Iranian economy. The main reason for this is the postponement of the Iran-US nuclear talks. Given the current state of the foreign exchange market, the needs of the country and the budget are observed. A sharp decline in the dollar rate can not be imagined.

Therefore, economic activists can make their financial decisions at a price of about 22,000 tomans. This is the suggestion of Dr. Abdo Tabrizi, who had given warnings to the people and investors before the fall of the stock market. It is unlikely that we will see the liberalization of foreign exchange resources in the next six months, and even if liberalized due to the country’s high needs for foreign exchange, the dollar is unlikely to change significantly.

*** There is an urgent need for currency in industries

The dollar price shock in recent years has imposed heavy inflation on the country. The need for currency is felt in many of the country’s basic industries. Given the current inflationary climate, it is better to maintain the current levels of the dollar exchange rate and at least stabilize it than to continue the unstable downward trend in it. In the current situation, it seems that the government does not have the necessary preparation and courage to enter the foreign exchange market, and we will most likely not see significant changes in the exchange rate. Many industries have difficulty supplying their raw materials due to the lack of foreign exchange. This is exactly the real example of removing obstacles to the country’s production and industry.

*** Global Gold Roadmap and Dollar Value

The global ounce of gold fell about $ 385, or about 18.65 percent, in nine months, but from March 30, about three weeks, to about $ 95, or more than 5 percent, to date, despite some corrections. Has increased slightly. It is not surprising that the world currency enters the gold market by leaving the cryptocurrency market on the roof, and it may be a natural behavior. Therefore, with the growth of the La rate, a new wave of the value of the dollar in the world is likely to be created. The growth of the value of the dollar against other international currencies can cause a price shock to the dollar in Iran. This issue should not be ignored by analysts and economists.

*** The mass collapse of cryptocurrencies and the opportunity for global dollar growth

Some news sources, most of whom focus on cryptocurrency performance, say that in the past week, a total of about $ 260 billion to $ 400 billion in cryptocurrencies, or about 20 percent of their total value, has been lost. Bitcoin, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, also lost its six-month uptrend support channel for the first time since March 8, 2020; It has fallen below $ 50,000, down 10 percent. Over the past 24 hours, all cryptocurrencies have declined significantly. The reason for the sharp drop in cryptocurrency prices is not yet clear, but some sources have suggested that the drop may be due to Joe Biden announcing a tax increase for the wealthy Americans. At the micro and macro levels, this could lead to a dollar price shock due to the liquidity of some investors.

*** The role of gold in financial and forex market fluctuations

The gold market has been skeptical about the short-term trend of this precious metal due to the inability of gold to break above the $ 1800 level. However, not all analysts are convinced that an ounce of gold is ready to break the higher price and climb above the $ 1,800 mark. The head of Darin Newsam Analysis predicts that the price of gold will test support at around $ 1750 in the short term. It is likely that the growth of gold prices in world markets in the medium term is predictable. It is predicted that gold will resist the appreciation of the dollar and at least in the short term in financial markets such as Forex we will not see a price shock to the dollar.

*** Economic damage from the rate of USD 4,200

Unfortunately, in the current situation and despite the price shock of the dollar, the country’s economy is still affected by the dollar rate of 4200 Tomans. According to the latest statistics released in the last month of 1999 and the first month of 1400, a total of $ 1.4 billion of preferred currency has been allocated for the import of basic goods and livestock inputs. Monthly inflation for goods whose inputs received preferential currency has continued to rise in the past two months. This means that the exchange rate of 4200 Tomans has not created any added value for the final consumer. With all these interpretations, unfortunately, this process of providing currency to these markets continues.

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