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Analysis and price trends in the iron market

شناسه : 46310 06 اردیبهشت 1400 - 9:30
The Iranian hardware market is heavily dependent on the price of the dollar. In the current situation, one of the most important factors of uncertainty in the iron and steel markets is the lack of a clear outlook on the dollar exchange rate. In the global iron and steel markets, the lack of clear information on demand in recent months and the status of the Corona virus are the most important pricing factors in the iron market.
Analysis and price trends in the iron market
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The iron market, according to all those involved and activists in the field of iron, has been estimated with significant fluctuations in the past year. Most of these fluctuations have been due to the sharp changes in the exchange rate last year and the ups and downs of the stock market and, consequently, the commodity exchange. In this note, we will examine the role of the dollar and other influential factors in the hardware market. Please stay with Artan Press until the end.

First, before evaluating the domestic hardware market, we will look at the role of global markets in changing the domestic market trend. Regarding the price outlook of the international hardware market, it seems that the main direction of global prices will be based on price increases. This issue requires macro-policy makers at the macro level. Currency factors are insignificant in world prices. And prices strongly depend on the issue of global demand. In this regard, we predict that the trend of rising prices will continue steadily and slowly. For example, estimates suggest that next week we may also have a $ 750 / ton FOB Black Sea roll. This is the way it is now, unless there is a change in important global data.


The most important factor in the internal pricing of the hardware market is focused on Borjam and the results of its negotiations. In the current situation and according to the latest data from the results of the negotiations, progress has had a greater share in the negotiations. Given the possibility of international openings; It is very likely to have a downward trend in the price of foreign currencies. It seems that the possibility of lower foreign exchange prices has been exacerbated by rising global metal prices, and the domestic market has not been affected at least by this factor. Of course, it should be noted that markets are in a state of fear and recession and there is no will to raise prices.

*** Take a look at rebar deals in the domestic iron market


The most important element of the hardware market should be considered rebar. Because it always has the greatest impact on the prices of hardware markets in Iran and global markets. In this regard, we note that according to the latest data of the iron market, the increasing trend of the price of beams and steel rebar in Isfahan has been stabilized in the commodity exchange. Last week, the value of transactions reached more than 3.700 billion rials. Rising rebar prices alone could lead to rising prices in the hardware market during the market downturn.


*** Evaluate rebar rate changes


Regarding the changes and fluctuations in rebar prices, it should be said that rebar had an increasing trend in the first six months of last year, but in the second half of last year, it fluctuated due to fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate and did not register a specific path. Between 1997 and 1998, we saw two reductions in the price of rebar, which is related to the negotiations. But all these measures of the government have no effect at the moment, and the price of rebar has increased significantly in the first quarter of 1999. Political factors appear to be pushing up the rebar rate further in the medium term due to its involvement in the nuclear negotiations.


*** Six-month outlook for iron ore prices

Price estimates for other iron products show that the prices of studs, angles, ribbed rebar, black sheet and oil sheet have had a very positive slope in the last six months. Meanwhile, the price of oiled sheet, which is one of the most widely used steel sheets, has increased more than other steel products. The reason for this price increase is the materials and technology used to make these sheets. Dependence on the production of some inputs in the hardware market causes the growth of the price of the dollar and other political factors such as sanctions to increase the cost of these products and cause the price to rise in the hardware market.


*** Influence of iron rates on the foreign exchange market


Prices in the hardware market follow the dollar exchange rate directly. We have always seen that the dollar price shock has caused fluctuations and inflammation in the steel and iron markets. This dependence is due to the supply of some materials and on the other hand the convergence of domestic prices with global markets. Due to the existing sanctions in the industrial, iron and steel markets, the export sector also faced many problems this year. This has led to an increase in iron prices and even a record in this market. In the current situation, we are witnessing a situation in which prices are rising during the recession. The stagflation of the hardware market can be a major threat to the country’s industrial economy.


*** Consequences of the growth of domestic iron prices


The growth of iron prices in the domestic market has many consequences. We are in a situation where the housing market is in an unprecedented recession. The reason for this can be the pricing of housing rates in dollars. In the current situation, due to rising production costs in the hardware market, we are witnessing an increase in the price of milling, beams and angles and other products in the field of construction. Continuation of this trend could exacerbate the housing market downturn. The housing market will enter an unprecedented hyperinflation if iron ore becomes too expensive.


*** Car market in the heavy shadow of steel and iron market


The price perspective of the hardware market does not end with the issue of housing, stock exchanges and exports. The machine market is strongly influenced by the prices of steel and iron sheets. Rising dollar prices, imports and use of iron products affect the price of light and heavy machinery. Perhaps in the current situation, the car market is in a relative recession. But estimates show that if the price of hardware in the car market changes, this issue will be affected. Since the beginning of the year

Before July of the same year, we saw a rise in prices, which coincided with the staggering growth of prices in the steel market. Therefore, if prices rise in the iron market, we will see a wide range of price increases in commodity markets.


*** Lack of clear roadmap on dollar rates

The fact that in recent days we have witnessed fluctuations and setbacks and sometimes very little growth in the steel and steel market is not the reason for the lack of demand. What matters is the lack of a clear outlook for the currency and dollar markets. Markets will fluctuate as long as the dollar does not have a clear position for price movement. The issue of the price of the dollar is perhaps the most important factor in the pricing of the hardware market. As can be seen in the price shocks of previous years. Whenever the exchange rate rose, the iron and steel markets immediately updated their prices with the new exchange rate.


*** The role of the stock market in iron prices


Regarding the role of the stock exchange in the hardware market, we point out that the issue of financing in stock exchange companies is the most important factor in their performance and ultimately their competitiveness. Last year, a large amount of real and legal capital entered the stock market, and steel companies played an important role in raising capital. Last year, a significant part of the capital was invested in Khuzestan Steel, Mobarakeh Steel and Zobahan, which led to a boom in the iron market. If the stock market is not doing well today, the reason is the withdrawal of legal money from the market. If the stock market is revived, we will see a drop in prices in the hardware market. But this seems a bit far-fetched in the current situation.

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