In the current situation, the Iranian steel market is affected by the scenarios facing the nuclear negotiations. Many investors have decided to make market entry conditional on the outcome of the nuclear negotiations. This will lead to a short-term downturn in the Commodity Exchange and lead to the failure of steel transactions on the Commodity Exchange. So that the steel route will accompany Iran and the world with a divergence. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Failure in the trading section of long steel sections
These days, the reasons for the failure of steel transactions in the commodity exchange can be attributed to political issues. The long sections market in the commodity exchange has faced an incredible decrease in the volume of purchases. Although we are witnessing some movement on the supply side; Surveys and indicators of the long steel sections market show weak demand. This is precisely the source of the investor’s patience and supplier fears in the ambiguous political context that has hit the country’s industrial economy hardest.
*** Logic departure from business relationships in the industry
The path of commodity markets in all markets is out of its logical course and no market can be analyzed in the current situation. Perhaps the prolongation of the nuclear negotiations is currently a major factor in the failure of steel trading in commodity exchanges and export markets. Adopting the upward trend of the domestic steel market in these days when people are looking at the news and expect the economic conditions of the country to improve; Some have made it much more difficult for them to decide on any activity.
*** The role of financial factors in the failure of steel transactions in the commodity exchange and the free market
In addition to structural items in the steel market, economic factors have joined hands to complicate market scenarios. There is no convincing reason for the dollar to fall in the current situation. It is simply a matter of creating a psychological atmosphere in society. A sharp drop in the price of the dollar has also reduced inflation expectations for the short term, leading to further recession in the markets. In the current situation, a growing outlook for steel markets cannot be considered. This may be a factor in the failure of steel trading.
*** Take a look at the market situation from the manufacturer’s point of view
The market situation is not bad to evaluate from the perspective of the manufacturer. The producer acknowledges that his market path is separated from the dollar, and given the hot market of 10,000 tomans of scrap iron, prices should increase; Domestic demand, on the other hand, hopes to open up to sanctions and improve its livelihoods, and has taken a “patient and watchful eye” not only in the steel sector but in all markets. So you can not just look at cost items and predict the fate of markets.
*** Heavy recession in ribbed rebar transactions
The steel market is in a very rare position. The failure of steel transactions in the current situation has entered a new chapter. We are witnessing the growth of prices and the prosperity of the steel market in the world. But the Iranian steel market is in a failed and disgraceful situation. Rarely have we encountered such a decision dilemma for market demand, especially micro-demand, as evidenced by the fact that only 36% of the total supply of ribbed stock rebar was welcomed last week. The rebar market is usually a showcase for steel trades. Because many civil and industrial constructions of the country depend on this steel product. Therefore, the mentioned example shows the depth of the recession in the steel market well.
*** Comparison of domestic steel market and cis
Usually, the Iranian steel market aligns its buying and selling signals with the cis export steel market. But it is not bad to compare the failure of steel transactions from the perspective of comparing domestic steel with the cis field. The process of nuclear negotiations has caused Iran’s domestic steel markets to distance themselves from the pursuit of this field. International steel export markets are at their peak and returning to the record of the last 9 years. While in Iran, market monitoring shows a severe recession at all times. This is the damage that the prolongation of the nuclear negotiations will do to the industrial commodity markets.
*** Depth of divergence of Iranian steel transactions and cis area
But in order to determine the depth of the difference between the Iranian and international steel markets, we will pay attention to the price index of black sheet in cis transactions. Yesterday, according to the latest news, the CIS export ingots were started in the ascending cycle, which has been going on for almost a year; These days, it has managed to reach a record $ 592 / ton, relying on the Chinese storm market. Meanwhile, the export ingot market in Iran has been accompanied by a significant decrease in price and currently does not have many customers.
*** Nuclear negotiations, locking the steel market
Certainly, this incident shows the failure of Iran’s steel transactions in the best way in the current situation. But the peak of the difference will be realized when only earning less than another $ 10 is enough to bring the cis export ingot back to the 2012 record. But the Iranian steel market, affected by the process of nuclear negotiations and the prolongation of these negotiations, has taken the path of passivity and stagnation.
*** Failure of steel transactions from the perspective of market psychological climate
Calming inflation expectations and a skeptical outlook on the threat of liquidity flowing into commodity markets is a major threat and a failure in domestic steel trading. The hope of lifting the sanctions in the form of a drug has led the steel market to take an irrational and irrational path that is neither in the interest of the buyer nor in the interest of the seller. On the other hand, after that The election of Biden as President of the United States of America’s speculative markets in Iran is not economically justified.
*** Threat of stagflation in some steel markets
But in addition to the recession in some markets, we are witnessing inflation in the cost of some steel products, and some areas have been accompanied by a recession. In this regard, we should mention that the average index rate of induction field ingots yesterday, about 12,445 tomans per kilogram, including VAT rate is priced. This price compared to Wednesday last week; It has been accompanied by an average and approximate increase of about 295 Tomans. This could be a major concern for the entire supply chain and the steel industry.
*** The role of the dollar facilitator in the steel market
The dollar factor in the current situation can not play a very important role in changing the game of steel trading in the commodity exchange. If there is a change in the dollar exchange rate, the market will usually react positively, especially if the dollar price trend is declining, because it will help make prices more realistic in the steel market. As can be seen from capital market sources and the dollar chart; The dollar is currently suffering and, of course, completely imperceptibly in a downward direction, now apparently reaching the floor of 24,000 Tomans; But it is still under the strong support of 25-24 thousand tomans. This could double the failure of the steel market.
*** Steel price growth in the stagnant market
As mentioned earlier; The hot export market and the shortage and high prices of raw materials and the usual inflation, which start every year due to the increase of some reproduction costs, salaries, wages, etc. in the domestic market, have provided the ground for invasion of some steelmakers and gradual increase of prices. Is. For example, in this regard, we can refer to the ribbed rebar market. The increase in prices in ribbed rebar transactions at the beginning of the reopening of market activity yesterday started from 50 to 100 kg and now in some areas of this field has gone up to 200 Tomans. This rise in prices in a stagnant market is practically considered a failure of steel trading in the commodity exchange. Because it makes the conditions harder to reach a normal limit of prices.
*** Chinese demand is driving the growth of Iranian steel prices
In recent days, China has been the main buyer of Iranian steel products. It seems that the main reason for this increase in prices has originated more from the upward trend of export markets in the Iranian ingot sector, especially the hot and attractive market of Chinese customers. This factor, unlike other cases, can be considered as a factor in overcoming the failure of steel transactions in the Iran Commodity Exchange.
Reports from international magazines such as Metal Bulletin; It indicates the strong acceptance of Iranian steel bloom export ingots in the imported markets of China and Far Asia. On the other hand, our private sector steelmakers, who are mainly inducers, also face some problems and shortages in this field in the supply of raw materials, including sponge iron and scrap iron, which, of course, is not new in this field.
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