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Gold prospects depend on global negotiations and friendship

شناسه : 47315 ۱۵ اردیبهشت ۱۴۰۰ - ۱۲:۲۱
Due to the stability of the ounce value, at least cross-sectionally, and the lack of a buying wave in international markets due to the uncertain economic growth, we are witnessing a severe recession in the gold market and a decline in the gold outlook in the domestic market. Due to the hopes for the results of the negotiations and the closure of the gold markets, we are witnessing a drop in the price of gold in the Iranian market.
Gold prospects depend on global negotiations and friendship
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The price of gold in the Iranian and world markets has been associated with significant differences, and determining the outlook for gold in the current situation is difficult and practically impossible. In this memo, we will point out the most important factors influencing the gold prospects rate in the last days of April. Please be with Artan Press.

*** Slow rise of gold prices in the world

During the last trades recorded in the last hours of last week, gold showed that the conditions are ready for the growth of the price of this precious metal and if the price of trades rises, it will prosper. The gold outlook could be bullish for the next three months due to a lack of full control over the spread of the corona virus. The price of gold in the global market on Thursday last week rose slightly due to the weakening dollar. The reason for the fall in the price of the dollar was the news due to the impact of the corona epidemic and the insufficient vaccination process. Of course, new US reports will be released by the middle of the new week, and this could push the price of gold next week. Overall, the gold outlook is bullish in the short term.

*** Take a look at the global ounce price

But apart from the changes in the price of gold based on fluctuations in the price of the dollar and the ups and downs of US economic news, a very important factor influences the outlook for gold. We should not ignore the short-term fluctuations of the global ounce. Accordingly, the follow-up of the latest global ounce trades shows that the price of an ounce of gold for immediate delivery increased by 0.3 percent and reached $ 1,742.62. This has given the main impetus to the growth of gold prices in world markets.

*** High risk in US financial markets

Since the US futures market is the largest gold market in the world, we must look for the pulse of the gold market in this way. In the US futures market, gold rose 0.3 percent to $ 1,742.10 an ounce. The stock traded down 0.6 percent at $ 1,736.30 yesterday. The reason for the fluctuation of gold prices in the market is the lack of sufficient information about the global economic outlook in the next six months of the year, which has led many investors to be cautious. Currently, the lockdown of commodity markets and the complete unresolved problem of the recession have kept the gold outlook bullish.

*** Gold prospects in the domestic market

But we return to the domestic market and evaluate the developments in the steel market from this perspective. Contrary to the slow growth of world gold prices, the outlook for gold in Iran is assessed at least in the current downtrend. Recently, in a review of transactions, we found that coin buyers suffered the most losses in the fourth week of April. In the fourth week of April, the returns of all investment markets became negative, and in the meantime, coin buyers suffered the most losses. Over the past week, the gold market has been closed due to coronary restrictions, and a lack of demand, along with falling global exchange rates and ounces, has pushed down gold and coin prices.

*** Gold prospects from the perspective of parallel markets

Usually the gold market after the dollar gets the most impact from the stock market. Last week, we saw a drop in the stock index by half a percent of the total index. Stock investors also lost this week as the stock index fell 0.5 percent in the fourth week of April. The main reason for the decline in the gold outlook was the lack of support in other parallel markets. This week, the foreign exchange market was also on a downward trend and the returns of the dollar were 0.8 percent and the euro was 0.3 percent negative. All of these factors went hand in hand as gold prices fell 1.7 percent and coins fell 1.8 percent. This drop in prices could still affect the outlook for gold.

*** Divergence of the dollar and the euro in the Iranian economy

But there is a relatively rare occurrence in the foreign exchange market that we have rarely seen. This was the divergence of the dollar and the euro. For example, the cash dollar exchange rate in the open market on the last trading day of last week decreased by 50 Tomans to 24,900 Tomans, but the cash Euro was sold at 29,800 Tomans with a growth of 100 Tomans. This position shows that sparks have been sparked in the direction of de-dollarization in the Iranian economy. This could change the gold prospects for gold, which is priced in dollars.

*** The role of nuclear talks in the gold prospect

Given the scenario of the Iran-US nuclear deal, many people who intend to enter the gold market are cautious and do not engage in heavy trading at the moment. Therefore, the gold market does not have much depth in terms of trading volume. In the current situation, trading is limited to a large shortage of gold sellers, and due to the closure of markets, the depth of the gold market recession is more evident. Continuation of this trend will lead the gold outlook to a downturn with greater certainty. The continuation of the nuclear talks is not in the interest of the Iranian economy. The markets are in a severe recession and this situation is by no means favorable for markets such as housing and gold.

*** Relative stability of the gold market

Due to the stability of the global ounce value and exchange rate, as well as the lack of demand, the price of gold and coins has not changed from yesterday. Despite the stability of prices in recent months, market transactions have been minimal and people will not be willing to buy gold and coins until the political situation is clear. Unless a specific political or economic event occurs, the gold and coin prices appear to remain stable due to the closure of the gold market by the end of the month. Therefore, the gold outlook will be considered with a slight decrease and generally fixed.

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