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Threat of Iranian oil supply to energy markets

شناسه : 47338 ۱۶ اردیبهشت ۱۴۰۰ - ۱۱:۰۳
According to some analysts, Iran's oil supply could be a threat to energy markets if the Barjami talks succeed. Because Iran has offered its oil to the market even in the worst conditions of sanctions.
Threat of Iranian oil supply to energy markets
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Various international news agencies have discussed whether Iran’s oil supply to the world market is a threat to oil-producing countries. The results of these assessments show that despite the supply of Iranian oil to the markets, there will not be much difference in oil prices, which we will discuss in this memo. Please be with Artan Press.

*** Barjam’s role in Iran’s oil production

The current debate over BRICS, including in Europe, Russia, Iran, and the periphery of the United States, has been anxiously monitored by international oil markets. The possibility of Washington rejoining Iran’s international nuclear deal is still in doubt, but the Biden administration appears to be considering it. This issue could greatly overshadow the supply of Iranian oil in international markets.

*** Possibility of turmoil in the energy market with Iran’s accession to Barjam

Iran has stated that it will return to the IAEA only if US sanctions on its major economic sectors, oil and gas, are lifted. Analysts are concerned about the possible negative consequences for global oil supply and oil prices in the context of Iran’s oil supply. The current global oil market is stabilizing, it is not in a position to guarantee this stabilization and growing trends.

*** Saudi concern over Iran’s oil extraction

Iran and Venezuela have seen their production restricted by international sanctions. Libya and Iraq are suffering from civil strife, civil war and political strife. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia were able to successfully control the oil markets without the presence of these players in the market. The lifting of sanctions on Iran under the new agreement on the supply of Iranian oil to international markets worries Arab producers, the United States and Russia. But these concerns may be unfounded.

*** Assess the threat of selling Iranian oil to energy markets

Some oil market analysts believe that the success of Borjam could destabilize the oil and gas markets. Iran’s oil supply could increase price fluctuations, and we could even see the return of the bad days of the global oil market in the pre-corona situation, when oil prices fell to $ 20 a barrel. There is a major flaw in this analysis because it is based on the assumption that sanctions on Iran successfully pushed Iranian oil out of the market. But assessments showed that Iran’s oil supply was relatively well-regulated in the market, even in the worst of US sanctions.

*** Uninterrupted sale of Iranian oil even in the worst conditions

Oil and oil tankers have repeatedly shown that Iran’s oil exports are not only very flexible but have grown exponentially during the embargo period. Some analysts have acknowledged that China has never stopped buying oil from Iran altogether. The OECD also said that Iran’s oil supply to China in the fourth quarter of last year was 360,000 barrels per day, compared to an average of 150,000 barrels per day in the first nine months of last year. . These show that Iranian oil maintains its markets in the face of sanctions and the supply of Iranian oil to the energy market is not harmed.

*** OPEC report on Iran’s oil production growth

OPEC also reported that Iran’s crude oil production increased by 6.3% in March. OPEC tables cited in reports released on Wednesday last week show that Iran’s crude oil production has increased by 137,000 barrels per day. OPEC tables also show that the average Iranian oil supply in 2020 has reached 1.985 million barrels per day. Which indicates Iran’s 40% capacity at the height of sanctions.

*** Asians welcome the purchase of Iranian oil

Major Asian customers in China, India and other countries welcomed the supply of Iranian oil during the sanctions. At the height of the sanctions, Iranian oil was sold cheaply and with a lot of offers, which caused Iran to always maintain its oil supply even in the worst conditions. Energy should not worry about this.

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