In this memo, we will evaluate the direction of the commodity exchange market and stock exchange markets in the days leading up to the elections. Unfortunately, in the current situation and the rise of some steel products in the commodity exchange, even from the world rate, we are witnessing a severe recession and a state of watching from the buyer side. Continuation of this process will definitely cause many problems for construction projects in Iran. We will discuss this issue in more detail below. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Steel price trends from a macro perspective
The most important factor in steel pricing is the price of raw materials. The trend of steel prices in the commodity exchange market and the accompanying free market has followed this factor. Experience has shown that we should always look at the prices of raw materials, especially sponge iron and scrap metal. Therefore, the evaluation of the prices of these two products shows that the market has not shown a will to reduce prices in the current situation. Exports in the absence of domestic demand are an excuse not to see any correction in domestic steel prices.
*** Domestic demand volume; Ineffective in the market atmosphere
The second issue to consider is that we do not pay attention to the volume of domestic demand. Because our market makers have been ignoring this issue this year. The volume of domestic market demand is customized by the manufacturer. Therefore, it should not be considered as an important factor in determining the trend of steel prices. It has been observed that various analysts in the official networks of the steel sector have taken this issue into account in their calculations, and this factor has led to a reduction in the price of steel. But contrary to this analysis, we are witnessing events contrary to the direction of this prediction.
*** The role of dollar remittances in steel price trends
Another important issue to consider in determining the price of steel is that we look at changes in dollar remittances and export rates. A change in the dollar remittance rate could shift the steel rate in the domestic market. There have been reports of a US trade deficit. If this trend continues, the dollar-dollar remittance rate will decrease. Perhaps this can lift this irrational flow of prices in the steel market out of the abyss of unresponsiveness.
*** Take a look at the pulse of the commodity exchange market in weekly trading
Iron scrap around 10 thousand tomans per kilogram, including VAT, and currently there is no news of a decrease. Sponge iron which was traded today in the commodity exchange around 8600 to 8700 Tomans, in other words, 9350 to 9500 Tomans, including VAT, and there was no news of a reduction or even a lack of acceptance. The demands of these products are unfortunately for export purposes. This is a great injustice to the domestic steel chain in the current situation. This is a topic that we have discussed in detail in the analysis of the previous days.
*** Steel trading trends in export supply
But along with the statistical factors of the domestic steel market, it is not bad to have a look at the steel export market. Iran’s export rate, which increased by $ 10 to $ 15, averaged about $ 640 per ton, as well as the CIS export rate, which recently increased by about $ 645 per ton. The market since Wednesday last week and after graduating from the commodity exchange market transactions; He was resting and retreating a little. Given the current fundamental propositions, one cannot expect a significant reduction in these prices. Unless we start re-injecting inflammation through the commodity exchange, which we hope will not happen, at least this week. But given the brutal domestic market; Evidence, given the dollar exchange rate and the rate of exports and raw materials, addresses something else that is currently not very satisfactory to the domestic consumer.
*** The unwritten convergence of the commodity exchange market and the capital market
Usually, the steel exchange market and the stock exchange are separated from each other. The trend of steel prices is completely indirectly taken from the capital market. Therefore, for a more accurate assessment of the commodity exchange market, we will also evaluate the latest developments in the capital market. In the commodity exchange, it is noteworthy that the fluctuations of the total index have not been noticeable for some time. The total capital market index stood at 1,144,954 points yesterday with 6891 negative units.
This market has been for some time after a sharp decline of 5 months from its peak in mid-August 1399 to early December 1399; After that, it can neither rise nor justify further reduction of the share price for most symbols. Approximately from the beginning of February last year until today; That is, in the last 5 months or so; Its incremental potential is constantly decreasing. Continuation of this trend in the next government could pave the way for a blow to the commodity exchange market. The capital market infrastructure must be reformed so that we do not see an irrational legal exit from the market.
این مطلب بدون برچسب می باشد.
ثبت دیدگاه