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    Biggest increase in OPEC oil production

    شناسه : 50469 13 تیر 1400 - 10:30
    An OPEC summit was held on Friday to agree on increased production and rising oil prices. Despite the growth of countries' production due to the relative economic prosperity in the world after the curfew, we saw that the UAE opposed the final result in this meeting. At the meeting, Iran also wanted to reach production before the sanctions were imposed.
    Biggest increase in OPEC oil production
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    New news was published in the oil market on Friday. OPEC leaders scheduled a day of meetings for the oil market outlook. Under the April agreement, OPEC opened in the second quarter of 2021 to meet global oil demand, boosting oil production by 855,000 barrels per day, the largest increase in a year. . Eventually, however, the 18th OPEC Plus Summit ended without result. In the following, we will evaluate the report of this meeting. Please stay with Artan Press until the end.

    *** Holding and disagreeing OPEC summit

    The 18th meeting of oil and energy ministers of member and non-member producers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), known as the OPEC Plus Coalition, ended without a result, and the decision on a gradual increase in production was postponed to Monday, July 5th. Oil prices have risen since Friday due to disagreements between member states. The countries agreed on a draft increase of 400,000 barrels per day of oil, leaving only the UAE to agree, but in the end this did not materialize. At the same time, production statistics show an increasing trend in OPEC oil production. OPEC production increased by + 855,000 barrels per day in June (Saudi Arabia 490,000 barrels, UAE 95,000 barrels and Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela 40,000 barrels each)

    *** Estimating the oil production of OPEC and non-OPEC leaders

    According to a survey based on ship tracking data, officials’ information and energy consulting estimates, the organization increased its 13-member production to 26.47 million barrels per day last month, up from 855,000 barrels per day in May. The Bloomberg Review found that Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer and largest exporter, accounted for more than half of June’s production increase, rising 490,000 barrels per day to 8.95 million barrels per day. have given. The number of US oil and gas rigs has risen for the third week in a row, according to Baker Hughes. The total number of US drilling rigs this week increased by five to 475, the highest number since April. It is 2020.

    *** OPEC Plus Summit and Agreement on Production Increase

    OPEC Plus agreed yesterday to increase production. These countries agreed to send more oil to the market from August and to extend the period of the production reduction agreement. This is while in OPEC Plus, no agreement will be implemented without the consensus of all members. All OPEC Plus agreements require the approval and consensus of all members.

    This rare occurrence on Friday means that the UAE can still cancel the OPEC Plus program. It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post. According to the decision of the OPEC + group from early April, the mass production of OPEC + oil was to increase by 350 thousand barrels per day in May and June and more than 400 thousand barrels per day in July. In addition, Saudi Arabia was gradually reducing an additional one million barrels per day by increasing its monthly production by 250,000 barrels per day in May and June.

    *** Bloomberg assessment of the increase in production of oil-producing countries

    Overall, OPEC Plus will return to 2.1 million barrels per day between May and the end of July. A similar Reuters poll earlier this week found that OPEC increased production by 740,000 barrels per day to 26.24 million barrels per day in June. Saudi Arabia’s production growth estimate is similar to that of the Bloomberg poll. According to a Reuters poll, Saudi Arabia increased its production by 500,000 barrels per day in June compared to May. So we can rely on the accuracy of the poll. With the global economy booming in the second quarter and rising fuel demand, especially in the United States, OPEC reached the right agreement in April to gradually increase market supply.

    *** Disagreement at OPEC summit

    Disagreements over the level of basic production for future cuts delayed meetings from Thursday to Friday. After the corona epidemic, the world economic situation is out of crisis again. Although the new corona virus called Delta has caused concern all over the world, but the global markets have not been much affected by this issue. Oil demand has risen significantly in recent months.

    According to the IEA forecast, by the end of 2022, demand could return to pre-Covid levels. Rising prices have caused mild distress in Moscow as it fears that global economic growth will slow. While many uncertainties persist, sources expected Russia to choose to increase production during the several-day OPEC + summit. The oil cartel has gradually increased its production to 2.5 million barrels per day by July to improve the global economy. However, while the market is facing a deficit of 3 million barrels per day, there is still about 5.8 million barrels of additional storage capacity.

    *** Russia seeks oil prices to keep pace with production growth

    So Russia is expected to push OPEC Plus to increase production even further as oil prices continue to rise. Moscow’s motives are twofold. First, there are concerns that expensive producers could spur more production, including North American shale companies. Second, not all Russian energy companies support the continued cooperation of the Russian Ministry of Energy with OPEC. With rising prices, Russian energy companies are more inclined to

    Do not prevent production. Igor Sechin, CEO of Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft, is known as an opponent of the country’s oil policy for opposing OPEC + production cuts. Although he has remained relatively quiet during the outbreak of the disease and has generally supported cooperation with Saudi Arabia, he expects the influential CEO to reduce production restrictions.

    *** Endless tensions at the OPEC summit

    In the past, tensions have arisen with the de facto leaders of OPEC Plus, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Because there is a significant difference in their attitude towards the oil market. Each of these countries looks solely at its own interests. The summits of the leaders of the oil-producing countries have never ended in a favorable outcome agreed upon by all members. We saw this in the last negotiations as well, so that the UAE defeated the OPEC Plus negotiations to increase oil production. Abu Dhabi wanted more quotas. This is likely to be repeated in subsequent meetings. Iran has also stated at the meeting that whenever sanctions are lifted, we will increase oil production at least before the sanctions. OPEC Plus’ decision has no effect on Iran’s willingness to increase exports.

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