In recent days, and especially in the first days of this week, we have seen prices fall into long steel sections. This was observed both in the beam and in the rebar market. This created the mentality that the price of sections is likely to be ceilinged. The rebar price cap is likely to be discovered these days as the market does not have more price growth for this high-consumption commodity. In the following, we will evaluate the conditions of the rebar rate ceiling in the open market and the domestic commodity exchange. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Evaluation of rebar price ceiling from the perspective of trading factors of long steel sections
The pricing of long steel sections is usually homogeneous and aligned. In order to be able to evaluate the price trend and price ceiling of rebar, we must look at the parent market of this field, namely half-beam. According to some rumors from the smelting beam market from some companies in Tehran, the main offers in the market have not changed significantly compared to what we heard yesterday. This indicates that the rebar rate ceiling phase is about to take place. In this regard, we return to the rebar market.
Market observation yesterday shows that the ribbed rebar market is between 17 and around 18,000 Tomans, including VAT, and some increases of 50 to 100 Tomans on the bulletin boards; However, the trading volume was reported to be very weak and the average price yesterday in this area was around 17,530 to 17,540 Tomans per kilogram, including VAT, and the average price increase yesterday in this market was around 50 Tomans or a little more. Let the rebar price ceiling happen these days with the same figures as described. There will be no price jump in this area.
*** The effect of unbalanced exchange rate fluctuations in confirming the rebar price ceiling in the current market
Another issue that has occupied the market studies and research on the rebar market ceiling is the untimely fluctuations of the dollar exchange rate in the foreign exchange market. The dollar exchange rate has settled on 25,710 tomans and is currently on a downward spiral. This rate reduction will help commodity markets to create some demand for themselves on the downside. Unfortunately, in the last four months, the commodity markets of the metals sector have been accompanied by a heavy drop in demand. It is hoped that this trend will end with the further depreciation of the dollar.
With all these interpretations, and despite the falling dollar rebar rate in the stability of the beam market, it is making its last efforts to ceiling the rebar rate. The price of rebar in most companies has increased by 50 to 200 Tomans and some companies had price stability. It seems that after this price increase, we are gradually approaching the rebar price ceiling. With the reduction of investors’ inflation expectations and the probability of a temporary drop in the dollar exchange rate, we will see a drop in prices in the cross-market, especially rebar.
*** Price peak in the markets of long steel sections
Other markets in the long-distance sector have also announced their peak prices in recent days. For example, in yesterday’s transactions, the price of beams in the open market increased by 100 tomans per kilogram, and in the steel industries, an increase of 20 to 80 tomans and stability can be seen. The rise in price in the profile market is also visible as sections and a company has announced a price increase of 500 Tomans. It seems that the rebar price ceiling has happened in the same direction and with the increase of the mentioned prices, and most likely we will see a drop in prices in this area this week.
The only factor that can push the rebar price up is the unusual demand growth in this area, which seems very unlikely. The prices of most rebar factories and steel products have increased and reached the saturation point. The rebar price ceiling is justified in terms of supply and demand. Most rebar factories increased their prices by 50 to 200 compared to the previous day. These seem to be the latest attempts to raise prices in this area. Rebar of Isfahan Steel Factory increased by 50 Tomans in the factory and was announced unchanged in the company.
*** Weak demand in the market of long steel sections
The price ceiling of rebar these days can also be justified in terms of supply and demand. In recent days, the stock market has not had much demand. Most likely, the market is implicitly waiting for prices to fall. Because many of the offerings did not have much competition and were based on the base price, a significant number of stocks remained stable. In general, due to the market situation and the lack of demand, there is a possibility of reducing fluctuations, and if the dollar is controlled and production increases with decreasing temperature, there may be room for correction.
*** The price ceiling of rebar in the current market is certain
It can be boldly claimed that the rebar market has reached its price ceiling. Stability was evident in most rebar companies yesterday. The slight increase in prices can be considered as the latest efforts of the market to hide the path of falling prices. The price ceiling was 18,205 Tomans in Hamedan Rad and the lowest price was 17,100 Tomans by two companies, Bardsir Kerman and Kian Foolad Abhar, with a stable price. The rebar price ceiling will most likely be maintained during this period.
Since last Wednesday, after the Supreme Leader’s remarks about the Vienna talks, the exchange rate has risen until it reached the border of 26,000 Tomans. In a meeting with Rouhani’s government, the leadership had said it would never lift sanctions on the West, and Burjam was a lesson and proof of the West’s unreliability. Of course, in addition to these words, there are some marginal cases such as the explosion of the Zionist ship in the Oman Sea and The line drawn by the officials of this regime for Iran has not been ineffective in the upward fluctuation of the market
*** Steel market decline due to blackouts and reversal of the steel market
The rebar market has not received any support from the market in the current situation. One reason for starting the rebar price ceiling process is the market retreat. The letter from the Steel Association shows that 85% of the country’s steel capacity has been severely damaged by recent blackouts, and this has raised concerns in the supply chain in the coming months. On the other hand, the demand response to these developments has been very cold. It seems that the so-called market is not eager to buy at all. For this reason, the drop in rebar prices in the market is definite.
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