جمعه, ۲ مهر , ۱۴۰۰ 17 صفر 1443 Friday, 24 September , 2021 ساعت ×
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    Exploring prospects for commodities

    شناسه : 52864 19 مرداد 1400 - 16:30
    Currently, everything that happens in the commodity market is due to the margins related to gold and its cross-sectional decline in the market. Due to the decline in the value of gold as the most prominent member of commodities, we see that the commodity perspective and consequently money is offered in the market with less support than gold. Iron ore is one of the marginal but highly traded markets in commodities. China has started a risky game in the field of commodities.
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    In its report earlier this week, Bloomberg examined the prospects for commodities and took a look at recent prices and fluctuations in the field. Global commodity markets are in turmoil in August, according to the report. Concerns about the escalation of the Federal Reserve and the spread of the coronavirus in China in the coming days will cause commodities to fall in price. Demand and consumerism in the world are declining in the short term.

    *** The start of shocks in the prospects for commodities due to gold rate inflammations

    We will first evaluate gold. Gold fell the most in January after the number of jobs in the United States rose more than expected. With China and other Asian countries grappling with the Covid-19 delta, investors are skeptical about entering the market. In the coming months, the commodity outlook looks set to be affected by the new morale of the Corona virus. This can slow down trade in commodities. Following this issue, crude oil has shown the greatest reaction to changes in gold prices.

    *** The result of the commodities movement in the last week

    The total value of the world’s 22 commodity purchases last week was $ 134.1 billion, down $ 0.5 billion from the previous week. Brent crude fell 1% – and the US WTI fell 5% -. Commodity outlook is likely to be accompanied by fluctuations in trading volume. At the end of last week, gold saw a 1% increase in the number of buying positions. But that did not happen again this week. Despite all the pressures on the price of gold, the price of gold is expected to grow in the coming days in world markets. This can be generalized to the silver market for a similar reason. If the risk of delta corona becomes more prominent in the world, the growth of gold prices will be more certain.

    Expect a decline in prospects for commodities in the coming weeks

    Financial and intermediation markets have also retreated in recent days, following the gold market and the commodity outlook. Forex investors traded lower last week. The US dollar traded at $ 0.8 billion and its Forex market value reached $ 3 trillion. Despite the growth of the dollar market, its value has fallen against currencies such as the Japanese yen and the British pound. The commodity outlook in the foreign exchange sector could be the scene of widespread fluctuations in the coming days. These currencies have been more attractive to investors.

    The situation of the euro currency in Forex is not very good. While some currencies have been well received in the market, the euro is not in a good position. This can be inquired about the number of buying positions in the last week. The depreciation of the euro in the Forex market has reached its lowest level in 17 months.

    *** China’s role in the prospects for commodities until the end of the year

    Some of China’s commodity policies will be to China’s detriment. The outlook for commodities in recent years has been heavily dependent on China’s view of the market. Iron ore is one of the marginal but highly traded markets in commodities. China has started a risky game in the field of commodities. For example, the weakening of iron ore order, although it has great benefits for China. This issue has put the economic aspect of this country and its shares in international stock exchanges under supply pressure.

    The acceleration of China’s economic growth seems to be moving away from the world. In other words, in 2021, China is no longer the engine of world economic growth, and power is now in the hands of other industrialized and developing countries. Of course, the Chinese are not idle in this regard. Over the past 10 days, the Chinese Communist Party, chaired by President Xi, has held meetings and pledged to boost financial resources and improve China’s economic growth in the second half of this year. . Overall, this could be a positive signal for countries investing in commodities.

    *** High cash flow in US financial markets

    Due to the decline in the value of gold as the most prominent member of commodities, we see that the commodity perspective and, consequently, money is offered in the market with less support than gold. In other words, the process of printing cheap money by the world’s central banks continues, and most of these resources go to the stock market. This has led to a high flow of liquidity in the world’s major stock exchanges. The US Nasdaq Stock Exchange, for example, hit a record high on Friday, which is good news for the US economy. In this regard, the rate of corporate bonds with Strong By Investment (BBB) ​​grade fell to the lowest level in history compared to the rate of 10-year US government bonds.

    *** Optimism for energy commodities

    Currently, everything that happens in the commodity market is due to the margins related to gold and its cross-sectional decline in the market. This shows the general structure of the commodity landscape in recent days. Experts believe that the drop in the price of gold to the psychological sub-border of $ 1,750 has encouraged investors to sell more of this yellow metal. On the other hand, the ambiguous outlook of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has had the greatest impact on falling prices in the global market for this yellow metal. Investors are turning to parallel markets, especially oil, more than ever. It seems that the beginning of economic growth of countries is a good excuse for energy exchanges.

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