Currency market fluctuations have become a major problem for market participants. The exchange rate in recent days was accompanied by a price peak at the level of 28,000 Tomans. It seems that the exchange rate has the ability to increase prices to higher levels. If the government starts working late, we will definitely experience the price at the level of 30,000 Tomans. This week, although the exchange rate moved to 30,000 Tomans once or twice, and even after a long time, the resistance of 28,000 Tomans was broken, but the currency chart backed up again and returned below 28,000 Tomans. In the following, we will examine the exchange rate. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Unhealthy situation of foreign exchange market in Iran
The exchange rate is not experiencing good conditions in the current situation. Continuation of this path can complete the wave of hyperinflation created in the past years. Continuation of this path will call into question the indicators of social welfare.
Although the distance between the dollar and the psychological border of 28,000 Tomans is small, but with the establishment of the ministers, the possibility of effective market maker intervention to control the market may be more effective. From this week, the foreign minister’s regional trips to Iraq and Qatar will begin to create a loophole for improving the return of currency to the country. Anyway, the possibility of the currency moving towards 30,000 Tomans is still there, although its probability has decreased due to various reasons, and maybe the dollar will stabilize in the same range of 27 to 28 at the moment.
*** Impact of currency fluctuations on declared steel prices
With the line and the logo of the Ministry of Silence for the steels in order to observe the supply floor, we will probably see the growth and strengthening of the supply of the commodity exchange. This supply is especially effective in the case of ingots by pressing the inductors somewhat in relaxation and even slight correction of prices. Global prices that are still weak and improving.
Although iron ore prices have improved slightly and regained the $ 160 floor, almost all global institutions do not anticipate good days for this market. Last week, although the market was stable and slightly improved on Wednesdays and Thursdays, but in the assembly of prices has increased compared to the previous week, for example, the average ribbed rebar 14 increased by almost 100 tomans compared to the beginning of the week 17 thousand 777 tomans The currency market fluctuations will definitely end with the price correction.
*** The fragile steel market and the tendency for prices to fall
If the supply of ingots continues, inducers will have to correct prices, and this situation will stabilize prices with a slight downward trend due to the continuing severe recession and frozen demand. But if the currency tends to 30,000 tomans again, there is a possibility of price stability with a slight increase, which, according to the information, is more likely in the first case, and most trends are in favor of price stability and reduction, except for something else. The dollar figure. Fluctuations in the foreign exchange market in terms of the steel market are practically an excuse for the expiration date.
*** The possibility of intensifying market fluctuations in the coming days
The dollar crosses the range of 28,000 tomans and gradually enters the resistance zone in the range of 28,500-22800. The market maker usually offers dollars in the market during the resistance. We may see a retreat to the range of 26,500 tomans, however, the outlook for the dollar is still rising. From a technical point of view, the banking and automobile groups can be the market leader. The mass production group will also be followed by a large volume. Currency market fluctuations should be taken seriously by market participants and ordinary people. Now is not the time to enter the market.
*** Assess the intrinsic value of the dollar in the international market
The dollar index is expected to rise in the long run according to the US Federal Reserve’s future policies, which, along with the resurgence of the Delta and Lambda mutant coronavirus pandemic, has led the world commodity market outlook. However, some experts believe that the trend that has often been between the dollar index and the commodity index is no longer as strong as it used to be, and that market rules have become somewhat chaotic.
In order to be able to make an accurate assessment of the outlook for currency market fluctuations, one must take a look at the supply situation.
According to the central bank, the volume of preferred currency provided in the first five months of this year amounted to $ 7.2 billion, which has more than doubled compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, the prices of commodities whose production inputs receive a preferred currency have risen significantly over the past year.
Paradoxical movement of market maker and foreign exchange market
These two contradictory moves suggest that despite imposing a very high opportunity cost, it is still unable to meet its primary goal of raising the price of basic commodities. This is a very risky issue for fundamental indicators of the foreign exchange market. Despite the rise in commodity prices, regardless of the preferential currency allocation policy, why does this failed policy continue? Meanwhile, at a time when the country is in financial difficulties due to the Corona crisis and sanctions, more than 160,000 billion tomans of rent is spent to continue the policy that has failed several times in our country. Currency market fluctuations are sometimes caused by speculators It has fallen to this day.
*** Impact of fluctuations in the Nimai currency market on the steel outlook
The growing trend of Nimai currency prices will have its impact on the steel market. had. This increase will undoubtedly lead to an increase in prices in calculating the base exchange rate will be. During this period, world sheet prices also had a limited decrease of $ 20-30, which could offset part of the increase in the dollar exchange rate. Currency market fluctuations can disrupt the steel market.
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