The foreign exchange market has shown declining signals since the beginning of the new presidential term. But given that the government is currently involved in higher-level economic issues, some market makers are trying to keep prices high. Foreign exchange market expectations seem to be declining. But the downward trend in the dollar is highly dependent on government performance in the fall. It seems that if the government takes control of the foreign exchange market, the market will be aligned with this path. It remains to be seen when this process will begin. In the following, we will evaluate the latest foreign exchange market data. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Check the latest foreign exchange market data
First, we examine the foreign exchange market in terms of value in yesterday’s transactions. According to the latest data, the dollar was sold in the open market with an increase of 260 Tomans to 27,200 Tomans. Euro with a growth of 320 Tomans, was offered at a price of 32,190 Tomans. The national exchange dollar was also sold for 26,440 tomans. Expectations of the foreign exchange market seem to be accompanied by inflammation. But the uptrend in the foreign exchange market will definitely be temporary. Political factors in the current situation are moving in a direction that this market can not see much growth.
*** Investigating the Dependence of the Dollar and Gold Rates in Economic Calculations
The foreign exchange and gold markets in Iran have a significant alignment with each other. Gold in the market is usually priced in dollars and sometimes the place of these two propositions is changed. In this regard, it is not necessary to take a look at the ability of the gold market to move the expectations of the foreign exchange market. Yesterday, the price of the Emami coin increased by 29,000 Tomans. This precious metal reached the price of 11 million and 888 thousand tomans. Each gram of 18-carat gold was sold at a price of 6,700 tomans, 1,150,900 tomans.
Gold traded at $ 1,788.23 an ounce in global markets. The gold market seems to have received the price signal earlier than the dollar. With the growth of 260 Tomans in the dollar exchange rate, we should see at least 60,000 Tomans in the exchange rate of the Emami coin. But this amount did not materialize. The foreign exchange market looks set to return in the coming days.
*** Assessing foreign exchange market expectations from the perspective of political issues
In order to clarify the outlook for foreign exchange market expectations, we must also examine the sources of foreign exchange supply. The reason for the recent price increase is that the foreign exchange supply route from Herat has been facing difficulties in recent days. But it looks like this route will be reopened. Herat is one of the main channels of supplying Iranian currency. In today’s market, the UAE dirham remittance rate was offered with a growth of 43 Tomans, 6 thousand and 311 Tomans.
Chinese yuan remittances were sold for 3,564 tomans. Turkish lira remittances were offered with a drop of 41 Tomans, 2,737 Tomans. It seems that the arrangement of international currencies against the rial is changing. The dollar is likely to fall more than other commonly used currencies in Iran. The Iranian government may strengthen the yuan against the dollar. This path is not yet clear to analysts.
*** Alignment of foreign exchange market expectations with foreign developments
In order to be able to better identify the expectations of the foreign exchange market, it is necessary to carefully monitor the political developments in the region and the world. The issue of Afghanistan, for example, caused an insignificant shock to the foreign exchange market in the short term. In previous analyzes, it was said that the fluctuating behavior of the foreign exchange market is sinusoidal in line with external developments and mainly the nuclear issue. In other words, after every positive news, the market falls, but because the basic propositions such as budget deficit and non-sale of bonds remain in place, it re-adjusts its dollar to the price of the currency. In general, the outlook for the foreign exchange market can not be predicted with certainty. However, due to the government’s involvement in this market, at least in the medium term, this market will experience a downward trend.
*** The entry of the Journal Economic Commission to solve the problem of foreign exchange supply
For now, the government must think seriously about importing basic goods. The head of the parliament’s economic commission has recently commented on this. He said a review of the currency allocation policy for the supply of basic goods is one of the commission’s top priorities. This issue will be assigned soon. If the currency allocated to the basic commodities is revised, the outlook and expectations of the foreign exchange market will be overshadowed by this decision. Despite the allocation of $ 8 billion in foreign exchange resources to supply basic goods in the first half of this year, these goods are still available to the people at high prices, which should be reconsidered.
*** Distance of foreign exchange market expectations from the halfway currency roadmap
Unfortunately, the Nimai currency path in the country could not lead the expectations of the foreign exchange market to an ideal path. Even the approach of the Nimai exchange rate to the free market has only increased trade costs and not created much profit for social welfare. Today, the Nima system has witnessed the supply of about $ 289 million in foreign currency remittances to supply the country’s import currency. According to the Central Bank, about $ 172 million of these offers were traded on September 13, 2014. Based on the transactions, the weighted average dollar exchange rate was 229,969 Rials. The same price gap between the Nimai currency and the free market has paved the way for some speculation.
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