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    Continuous decrease of rates in iron and steel market in Iran

    شناسه : 55338 11 مهر 1400 - 14:30
    The biggest problem that has always hurt our markets; It was doubt and fear that caused the demand spring to always be compressed, and finally like a compressed energy behind the dam; Eventually it will cause damage and fluctuations. With this trend, the iron and steel market will suffer a sharp drop in prices and deviate from the logical path.
    Continuous decrease of rates in iron and steel market in Iran
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    Considering the 26% gap between the ingot field and the iron scrap rate, it can be claimed that the Iranian iron and steel market has entered a new phase of falling prices. It can almost be said that the margin of this so-called completely dry area, or in other words, the bubble of this area has been completely emptied. A further reduction in the rate of ingots in the field of steelmaking, given the current rate of raw materials as well as the rate of export of ingots, will be a negative bubble in this market.

    It should be noted that this drop in prices may in the short term be a publicity stunt to control the market. But experience has shown that the market will later compensate for this negative bubble with space inflammation. In the following, we will evaluate this situation in the steel market in more detail. Please be with Artan Press.

    *** Generalization of iron and steel prices to the whole market

    The fall in iron and steel prices simply cannot be attributed to the field of steel mines and ingots. It seems that the rolling field is also affected by this issue. In previous analyzes, we had warned about the unhealthy situation of rollers and the nationwide closure of rolling mills. This negative bubble can make the situation worse. In the rolling field, however, a 15% margin indicates a further drop in prices. The result is the depletion of about another 5% of the margin margin in this area; The address of the rebar is 13,000 Tomans or about 14,200 Tomans, including VAT.

    The fall in iron and steel prices in Iran is neither logical nor logical. The biggest problem that has always hurt our markets; It was doubt and fear that caused the demand spring to always be compressed, and ultimately like a compressed energy behind the dam; Eventually it will cause damage and fluctuations.

    *** The fall in steel prices coincides with the start of the new government

    The sharp drop in prices has almost accelerated since the new government took office. Part of this drop in prices can be attributed to the easing of excitement. It seems that the country’s steel supply chain is approaching the equilibrium rate not only due to the prices of raw materials in the domestic market, including sponge iron and scrap iron. Even taking into account the 85% coefficient of the cis export ingot rate and the half dollar rate, the current ingot rate in the domestic market is an equilibrium rate.

    Meanwhile, some published news of the increase in Iran’s export ingot rate to $ 630 / ton has also been seen in recent reports. For now, we have omitted these figures as well. However, positive signs were also heard from cis export markets. The increase in the rate of export ingots in the region will not be unexpected due to the enthusiasm of Chinese importers due to the orderly reduction of their steel production volume.

    *** Risk of falling dollar exchange rate in the current conditions of the iron and steel market

    The only possible factors that can keep the negative psychological atmosphere of the country’s steel market still negative these days; One will be “fear of a half dollar depreciation” and the other will be “a reduction in the base rate of steel supply below 85% on the commodity exchange.” Now, the eyes and eyes are fixed on the arrival of October and the outcome of the decisions of the Ministry of Silence. We have already warned about the dollarization of markets in Iran. Unfortunately, this trend can weaken the economic infrastructure of industries.

    *** The need to direct the iron and steel market to the commodity exchange

    In the current situation, perhaps the best thing to do is to turn the market to the commodity exchange. The structure of the stock market should be supported to regulate prices. Certainly, this price reduction in the iron and steel market will not benefit anyone. 14 thousand Tomans rebar, if exported at the same rate, will be only a subsidy to the destination countries. The supply of steel and steel chain cycle products in the commodity exchange will be welcomed if these offerings are made at the right time and in the conditions desired by the buyers.

    Negotiated purchases are more attractive to factories than the supply of raw materials through commodity exchanges due to the variety of payment types. Buyers on the stock exchange are required to pay the full amount of the goods on time. For this reason, there is no welcome for the distribution of products in the commodity exchange, and the same is true for steel chain raw materials such as concentrates.

    *** Building trust in the stock market is challenging

    The structure of the Iranian stock market in July last year lost much of public confidence. In the current situation, the market desperately needs this trust, and the commodity exchange has unfortunately missed this opportunity. The structure of the commodity exchange in Iran in the current situation is not suitable for regulating the iron and steel market. The implementation of the supply of steel chains in the stock exchange requires the establishment of buyer and seller trust in the stock exchange.

    The Tehran Stock Exchange last year showed a very dark resume of irrational treatment. This has severely damaged commodity markets. The problem with stock exchanges is that suppliers do well in the beginning. They welcome the lack of buyers for their products at first due to the opening of export routes. But by the time products arrive at ports, prices may fall (similar to the present time) and they may not be able to export.

    *** The need to align the prices of iron and steel in Iran with world prices

    Experience has shown that losses have been created whenever Iranian prices move away from world markets. It is impossible to separate the prices of domestic products from world prices. Any price of steel chain products in the world is reflected in the domestic market, and if the billet price is to reach any value, it will affect concentrate, pellets and sponge iron, because based on the price index, a factor of Khuzestan steel export ingots are.

    inhabitants Azar is deeply involved in a kind of hesitation and doubtful confusion; The Ministry of Silence should clarify the details of its plan to regulate the domestic market as soon as possible in order to somehow get rid of the market residents from uncertainty. The direction of global markets is almost somewhat consistent with the stability and support signals of China’s import market, but the state of the dollar exchange rate and the formula to regulate the domestic steel market in the new government; It is still seen in ambiguity and it is not clear.

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