Based on official statistics released from official sources and market observations, it is easy to see that inflation in September last year was unprecedented. This was not unexpected because the summer was virtually out of control of either government. Commodity and consumer markets were experiencing relative price increases, but some markets saw price growth of up to 60%. In the following, we will evaluate this economic factor. Please be with Artan Press.
*** ۴۵% inflation of the whole country in September
According to the Statistics Center, the annual inflation of the whole country reached 45.8% at the end of the summer. Some cities were more affected by this issue. The reason why commodity inflation was higher in some provinces can be related to the cost of supplying materials and logistics. The assessment of economic experts shows that 8 provinces will experience inflation above 50%. Inflation in September can be considered as a result of unbridled inflation. Ilam with 53.1 percent, the highest and Qom with 41.3 percent recorded the lowest annual inflation in September.
*** Convergence of September misery and inflation index
Estimates of the state of the misery index in September are also worrying. Calculations show that 8 provinces of Iran are in the range of more than 60% in terms of misery index. According to the latest estimates of the Statistics Center of Iran, the inflation rate at the end of September reached 45.8 percent and the unemployment rate 9.6 percent, so the misery index in the country at the end of this summer has reached 55.4 percent. September inflation with the misery index has practically made the conditions for social welfare very challenging. It remains to be seen what mechanism the government has prepared for this rampant situation.
*** Declaration of dissatisfaction of the Minister of Economy with the current situation of monetary and financial indicators
The Minister of Economy recently announced that the increase in inflation in September is not desirable at all, and with the measures that will be taken, the brakes on price increases will be pulled. The current state of the markets is highly dependent on the dollar exchange rate. There is no logical reason for the dollar rate to approach 30,000 tomans. The market expected after the election that the dollar exchange rate would be closer to its real figures. But after the election, the market fell into the hands of speculators. This trend is by no means favorable to the people and the markets. In practice, Iran’s economy has been plunged into a severe inflationary recession that has bent the backs of markets and people.
*** The growth of household expenses following the rise of the inflation index in September
The Statistics Center has announced that following the 45% inflation of the Iranian economy, the share of price growth in the household basket has been 3%. Of course, this figure is debatable. In the summer, we saw a 30% increase in dairy prices. This is not in line with the increase in the salaries of the Social Security Organization and labor institutions. Minister of Economy Ehsan Khandouzi reacted. But he has postponed the correction to the coming months. “Unfortunately, the increase of more than 3% in the average prices of household items in September is very bad news, and this rate must be controlled in the coming months,” he said.
*** Evaluation of point-to-point inflation in different cities of Iran
The point-to-point inflation rate for the poorest sections of Iranian society reached 48.8 percent in September this year, while the rich have experienced a point-to-point inflation rate of 40.6 percent this month. This means that the poor contributed more to inflation than the rich. Also, some parts of the country experienced a worse situation regarding inflation. The highest monthly inflation of the country’s households reached Yazd.
In September 1994, the 12-month inflation rate for households across the country reached 45.8 percent. In this month, the highest monthly inflation of households in the country was related to Yazd with 5.8 percent and the lowest was related to Sistan and Baluchestan with 3.8 percent. The highest inflation rate for urban households was related to Yazd province with 5.5 percent and the provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan and South Khorasan experienced the lowest monthly inflation with 3.8 percent. Also in September, the highest monthly inflation rate of rural households was related to Qom with 5.8 percent and the lowest was related to Sistan and Baluchestan province with 6.6 percent.
*** Prospects for improving the country’s inflation situation in the coming months
The Minister of Economy considers the current situation to be related to the last months of the previous government. He has announced that economic policy will have an impact with a delay, and if the government borrows from the Central Bank with a budget deficit of 50,000 billion tomans in the first four months of this year, this issue will show itself in the sixth and seventh months.
The Thirteenth Government has put measures on the agenda to control rising prices, including controlling exchange rate fluctuations by increasing the sale of oil and condensate, which is on the agenda. Measures have also been taken in recent days to facilitate access to the country’s blocked currencies in other countries. In the first months of the year, we had 16,000 billion tomans of financing through the sale of securities, which has increased to 27,000 billion tomans in a recent month. Continuation of these measures can control inflation and pull up the brakes on rising prices, although it may have an impact several months apart. Inflation in September must be curbed as soon as possible.
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