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Oil, Gas and Petrochemical | صفحه ۲ از ۴ | آرتان پرس
Possibility of a rise in world oil prices rose
The oil market has continued to rise strongly for three consecutive weeks. The global oil market has faced a price shock due to the failure to reach a clear conclusion in OPEC Plus. Brent oil also benefited from OPEC Plus' move, and its price is expected to rise by 10% by next week. Consumerism in the field of energy has sounded the alarm on environmental indicators.
End of 2021 End of the effect of the virus on the oil market
The annual oil conference of the S&P Global Pellets Institute, held annually in Singapore, brought together the greats of the oil industry virtually this year. BP, Trafigura, Citigroup and Vitol are some of the familiar letters in the world oil and gas industry that attended the largest meeting of the world's oil industry and trade, sending messages about the future of the oil market, which are largely devoid of optimism.
Oil market in the post-election period
With less than two months to go before the US election, its winner, the next president, may pursue new policies in the energy and oil industries. In the Trump-Biden duo, the latter, who now has a better chance of winning, has said he wants to spend $ 2 trillion on green energy and not issue a new permit to drill for oil and gas on federal soil. On the other hand, Iran's oil exports are projected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day by the end of next year if Biden wins.
depletion of oil resources: main concern in the oil market
For more than a decade, the main concern in the oil market has been the depletion of oil resources, but reaching the peak of demand and then entering the downward path of this most important commodity market in the world has been an issue that has occupied the minds of analysts.The reason for this development is, on the one hand, the discovery of new resources around the world that have pushed supply into equilibrium with demand over time, and, on the other, the risk of global warming, which encourages governments to support renewable fuels and regulate the use of renewable fuels. It has forced fossil resources and greenhouse gas emissions.
Summer rise in daily crude oil exports
Estimates from international institutions, as well as the latest statistics released by Chinese Customs, indicate an increase in the supply of Iranian crude oil to the market. According to these figures, which are unofficial estimates, Iran's daily crude oil exports have probably increased to 600,000 barrels per day this summer. 120,000 barrels of this amount for July (July-August) has been approved by Chinese customs. Optimism about the outcome of the US presidential election and the growth of Chinese demand for cheap crude oil could be two possible reasons for the increase in Iran's activity in the oil market.
reduction in exports of petroleum products
The trading volume of the International Ring of the Energy Exchange in August was accompanied by a 30% decrease, which means a serious decrease in foreign exchange through the export of petroleum products from the country. They are not related to each other or have high affinities for various reasons. In August, the volume of supply of hydrocarbon products in the physical trading board of the energy exchange decreased by one million tons and reached 3 million and 508 thousand tons, which is still an acceptable figure, but despite the decline of one million tons of supply can not be easily It passed even when the demand also dropped by nearly one million tons.
Increased pessimism in oil forecasts
The International Energy Agency, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the US Energy Information Administration believe that oil demand will remain below the end of 2019 until the end of 2019, before the corona epidemic and beyond. Remained. Meanwhile, OPEC has the most pessimistic estimates of the future of black gold compared to the other two entities. In its August report, the agency cut its estimate of demand levels for all future seasons until the end of 2021, except for the first quarter of next year, and believes that demand will fall by one million barrels this year more than the agency estimates.
Iranian model of oil production capacity building
Yesterday, 13 contracts for the maintenance and increase of oil production were signed between the two offshore oil companies of Iran and the National Oilfields of the South as an employer.With the implementation of this contract, the value of which is more than one billion and 527 million Euros and 14 Iranian companies are present in its implementation, about 185 thousand barrels will be added to the country's oil production capacity.Thus, it seems that in a situation where the daily production of Iranian crude oil has decreased due to US sanctions, the Ministry of Oil is determined to prevent the reduction of the country's oil production capacity. Naturally, if an oil well is reduced in production, production will decline over time. This drop in production can even lead to a well being taken out of the production cycle, which, if it happens, will take a long time to recover. Therefore, during the embargo period, it is not only the reduction of sales and production that is important, but also the impact that the decline in production will have on the lives of oil wells, so the implementation of production maintenance programs will be of great importance. In fact, if such plans are not implemented, the lifting of sanctions will not allow a rapid return to pre-sanctions production capacity.
Confrontation of positive and negative signals in the oil market
Yesterday, at the time of writing (16:30 Tehran time), Brent crude fell 63 cents to $ 44.27 a barrel and returned to the $ 45 resistance. US crude fell 58 cents to $ 42.24 a barrel. Thus, Brent performance is negative this week and WTI performance is positive. According to available reports, the interference of positive and negative signals in the market has prevented a sharp rise or fall in prices and has entered the waiting phase.In fact, although the decline in demand and oil prices due to the outbreak of the Corona virus has occurred very quickly, but its recovery will be slow and long. One sign of a slowdown was the decline in Indian crude oil imports in July. This month, India's crude oil imports fell to their lowest level since March 2010 due to the resurgence of the Corona virus and its impact on the country's refineries. The emergence of this sign in India as one of the drivers of growth in crude oil consumption is while experts do not expect India's crude oil demand to return to pre-corona times in the short term.
Win-win deal for sale of crude oil
Although the proposal has been approved in its entirety, its executive features have met with serious parliamentary resistance. The reasons for the parliament's resistance to this method of financing are the lack of guarantee of the people's initial investment principle, the postponement of the financial commitment to the next government and the creation of new debt beyond the ceiling set by law Although these criticisms seem reasonable in the context of parallel standard oil futures, these concerns will be addressed if commodity exchanges are used in the energy exchange, and the possibility of physical delivery of crude oil, definition of futures, and presence of refineries in crude oil trading will be addressed. Was. The establishment of this fund means the creation of the largest market for trading oil securities in the national currency in Asia, and after the Shanghai Energy Exchange, it will be ranked second on the Old Continent.
Oil opening economic puzzle
Apparently, according to the original plan, oil was to be sold in the form of standard parallel futures of crude oil; But now the second route is to be opened through the establishment of tradable commodity funds, called ETC. According to the government's plan to finance 200,000 billion tomans, it seems that if this plan is finalized, the largest ETC in the history of Iran's capital market will be based on oil.It is rumored that the original plan did not provide for the possibility of selling the Commodity Fund units before maturity, which apparently was opposed by some senior executives and it was decided to change the form of work and issues such as the possibility of trading in the secondary market. To be seen in it. Expert meetings between the government and the parliament continued until late at night to address the details of this transparent financing method and the concerns of the parliament.
