The sale of crude oil in the form of standard futures to the public is the most important feature of a scheme called economic opening , which will lead to government funding.
Although the proposal has been approved in its entirety, its executive features have met with serious parliamentary resistance. The reasons for the parliament’s resistance to this method of financing are the lack of guarantee of the people’s initial investment principle, the postponement of the financial commitment to the next government and the creation of new debt beyond the ceiling set by law
. Although these criticisms seem reasonable in the context of parallel standard oil futures, these concerns will be addressed if commodity exchanges are used in the energy exchange, and the possibility of physical delivery of crude oil, definition of futures, and presence of refineries in crude oil trading will be addressed. Was. The establishment of this fund means the creation of the largest market for trading oil securities in the national currency in Asia, and after the Shanghai Energy Exchange, it will be ranked second on the Old Continent.
*** Serious resistance of the parliament with the plan of economic opening
The economic opening plan has met with serious parliamentary resistance. The findings show that the parliament’s objection to creating a financial commitment for the next government, not guaranteeing the buyers’ principal, as well as the legal ifs and buts of selling crude oil and creating a financial commitment within the framework of Budget Law 3 are Baharestan’s main criticisms of Pasteur’s proposal.
In a situation where parliamentary criticism seems to be acceptable with conditions and requires a difficult path of accountability, the government is trying to create another scenario for this method of financing with the help of limited and cross-sectional issuance of parallel standard crude oil futures on the energy exchange.
But in the literature of financial markets, there is a powerful alternative way that does not include the above drawbacks and has the potential to finance and physically sell crude oil with the national currency, and that is the supply of oil in the form of tradable commodity funds; No need for underwriting, or asset guarantee, along with the possibility of using price fluctuations in global markets along with the potential to define futures contracts is a feature of this trading method, which in the current situation is the best way to use this trading method in the economic opening plan. Are.
The creation of tradable commodity funds has been experienced in the countries of the world for many years, and now something very similar to this method of trading in the national currency is taking place on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
*** Agreement on generalities; Differences in details
The oil drilling plan is suspended; Some informed observers say that many side events are taking place around the opening plan, most of which are hidden from the media; For example, what is going on behind the scenes of the economic opening plan and why this plan has caused so much controversy. The contradictory statements of the officials themselves are a serious ambiguity in this direction, as if the real situation is not what we see and expect to be true.
The findings of the “World of Economics” show that the decision-making bodies, despite agreeing with the generals, have not yet reached a consensus on how to implement this plan, so the meetings of the Economic Coordination Council of the three powers did not end in a favorable outcome. It seems that the continuation of disputes over the government’s economic opening plan will end to the detriment of public opinion over time. Some officials involved in the project have called it the “World of Economics”; Failure to meet the government’s wishes and the continuation of the current stalemate will probably necessitate the appointment of a Supreme Leader.
*** What is not finalized
It is said that during the meetings of the heads of forces, the issue of securing financial resources for the supply of oil bonds has not been finalized yet, while the impossibility of redemption of bonds before maturity was another controversial issue, meaning that if the buyer for any reason before maturity (probably a Or 2 years old) is willing to sell his assets and demand a daily profit, whether he should be given such an opportunity or not, a matter which some advisers to the heads of forces seem to disagree with.
*** Risks of non-compliance
Due to the suspension of many construction projects due to the lack of financial resources, government financing is likely to increase the risk of increasing borrowing from the central bank and the growth of inflation, and on the other hand, the risk of policy-making at the level of leaders, risk. Leads to a decrease in trust in formal mechanisms; It seems that the leaders of the forces can not simply refrain from implementing the government’s mediated policies, even in a situation where the potential for inflammation is high in most markets.
*** Alternative scenario of the government and its technical accelerators
Experts say; The non-implementation of the economic opening plan means that the government must think of alternative routes. The easiest way is to offer standard parallel futures of crude oil on the energy exchange. These bonds have been traditionally traded on the energy exchange since 1994. As today, Sunday, two symbols of these bonds with a figure of up to 2 thousand billion tomans will be offered. This is the easiest way for the government to finance what the “world of economics” previously referred to as the opening ground for the opening exercise plan. Using this method means that within the framework of conventional guidelines, the government is trying to increase the funding it needs with less volume.
Estimates show that the supply of these bonds on the stock exchange is increasing, as if the government has started a new alternative game to cover its costs. Of course, increasing the supply of standard futures parallel to crude oil has complex technical mechanisms, and given the potential for a secondary market to repurchase bonds before maturity and
The need for an underwriting commitment also requires strong corporations and financial institutions that are currently less accessible to government officials, so this gap could create obstacles for the government. On the other hand, the issuance of this type of bond is very complicated, so it has a limited flight ceiling and the government can only consider it as a training or entertainment game and does not have the possibility of large-scale financing in the amount of nearly 200,000 billion tomans.
*** Plan expiration date
Those who spoke said the parliament was determined not to make a new financial commitment to the next government. Experts say that the parliament’s insistence on such an approach and the passage of time will cause the expiration date of the one-year bonds to expire; This event will create a vague future for this method of financing, because the passage of time means that the expiration date of the government’s proposed economic opening plan will practically expire.
*** Three conditions of the parliament in front of the economic opening plan
MPs say; Although the sale of oil to individuals and legal entities is not against the law, but if in the form of an economic opening plan; The amount of government debt will exceed the ceiling set in this year’s budget law and the debt ceiling approved by the Sixth Development Law, or even if the current government’s plan requires subsequent governments to pay heavy financial obligations, legally There is a need for MPs, although the approval of this plan in the Council of Heads of the three powers will be a way to cross the barrier of MPs.
*** Representatives are unaware of the details
Mohsen Zanganeh, a member of the parliament’s program and budget commission, told about the details of the government’s economic opening plan. The program, budget and economy of the parliament are present in it. Other deputies have been informed about it, but the deputies are not fully aware of the details of this plan.
Regarding the need for the government to obtain the approval of the parliament to implement this economic opening plan, Zanganeh said: “According to the law, the government can sell oil in any fiscal year according to the budget of the same year. The oil transaction does not need parliamentary approval.” The government can not supply this oil to various buyers through various means such as energy exchange or export, including individuals and legal entities and private companies, and oil buyers can use it to export this oil or to meet the needs of refineries and petrochemicals, but The problem with this plan goes back to the amount of debt created for the government.
*** How much oil does the government sell through the energy exchange?
He continued: “According to the law, the government can create debt every year in accordance with the amount provided in the budget plan for the year, but if by implementing this plan and selling oil to the people, the government debt ceiling will exceed the amount provided in this year’s budget or If the debt resulting from this sale raises the government’s debt above the debt ceiling of the Sixth Development Plan, the government will need the approval of the Islamic Consultative Assembly to implement this plan.
The representative of the people of Torbat-e Heydariyeh in the parliament said about the opinions of the members of parliament about the economic opening plan: “Since the details of this plan have not been raised in the parliament, there are two vague points and in fact there are questions about it.” It must be determined how much oil the government intends to sell through the energy exchange and what the debt ceiling created by the plan will be.
*** Make a commitment to the next government
Zanganeh raised the next objection of this plan to create a commitment for the next governments and said: if a plan creates a commitment for the next governments, it should be approved by the parliament. We also had an example of this in the targeting of subsidies. The targeted subsidy scheme created an obligation for subsequent governments, so the implementation of this scheme went through parliament and became law. Passing a law on this commitment of the government will make it possible for the government to include a heading in its budget each year, but if this plan does not go through the legal path, the government will have difficulty in drafting its budget next year.
He continued: “The sales price ceiling of oil is not clear in this plan, and according to the statements, the government will sell oil today at the world price and the daily exchange rate, and at the time of sale it will buy the product from the people at the exchange rate and world day price.” But if at the time of sale the world price of oil reaches $ 100 and the dollar exchange rate in Iran reaches 40,000 tomans, the next government will face a new challenge, which is also a serious problem.
Regarding the benefits of the plan, the member of the parliament’s program and budget commission said: “According to rumors, the sale of oil to the people is definite in the economic opening plan, and the buyer will own the oil and can sell it domestically and export it.” One of the benefits of transferring ownership of oil to individuals and private companies is to facilitate oil exports during the embargo period. Also be.
*** The standard inductor has nothing to do with the opening plan
Zanganeh said about the project of oil futures bonds, which is also confused with the government’s economic opening plan these days: the project of oil futures bonds is different from the proposal proposed by the government. Contrary to popular belief, people own oil, not oil. Also, in the sale of futures, the government has set a price ceiling and floor, and the price of oil, whatever it reaches, will eventually be
The government is committed to paying a certain interest rate to the people.
The member of the parliament’s program and budget commission added: “As mentioned before, the members of parliament do not know the details of this plan, and one of our current problems is that the government decides without informing the members of parliament.” Although the adoption of the law in the Economic Coordination Council of the heads of the three branches of government is legal, but the function of this council is related to the decisions that are necessary and the passage of the law can have economic consequences for the country.
However, we see that the government has resorted to using this legal clause for any approval, and somehow, by bypassing the parliament, it raises the issue and approves it in the Economic Council of the heads of the three powers.
*** The optimal path to implement the economic opening plan
There are two main ways for the government to finance the sale of crude oil to the people, one is the issuance of parallel standard crude oil futures and the other is the creation of oil commodity deposit funds. Operationally for the government in the financing process; There are many similarities between the two methods and both can lead to financing; Although technically deeply divided, the appeal of this method of financing is largely due to floating interest rates or pre-maturity redemptions, which have been debated in some quarters.
The possibility of financing and the need for a market maker or institution that allows the redemption of trading units before maturity are similar features of both methods, but there are profound differences between the two financing paths.
*** Parallel standard futures market
The parallel standard futures market has existed for many years for a variety of underlying assets and is considered a common transaction. In the first instance, these bonds were the best trading platform for financing oil through economic openness, but over time, there were certain concerns about its implementation. For example, one of the main objections of the parliament to the economic opening plan was the guarantee of funds, which in parallel standard futures contracts has traditionally guaranteed the amount and profit by companies and financial institutions, while guaranteeing or more precisely the need for a underwriter. It is not a legal obligation, but in our country, over time, it has become a technical obligation, which the parliament has emphasized exactly.
For standard standard futures contracts, it is not possible to create derivative contracts because the nature of these transactions is futures and is defined on the basis of an underlying asset whose maturity has not expired, so defining a futures contract is problematic. However, commodity exchanges do not have this limitation and derivative contracts can be used with it. For crude oil, due to its technical characteristics and the presence of oil in pipelines, warehouses and refineries, the definition of a certificate of deposit in a warehouse is different from other goods such as metals, and due to the existence of real oil reserves in all parts of the country, the same product can be It is a real asset that is present in all oil financial markets in the world.
*** How to physically deliver crude oil
In commodity exchanges, we do not need a underwriter, ie there is no obligation to repay the money, because the commodity itself is a guarantee and the owner of the commodity units can take over his basic assets whenever he decides. In simpler terms, there is no technical requirement to guarantee the original money, and crude oil or the same basic asset can be physically delivered at any time. On the other hand, whenever the owner of the commodity fund units decides, he can take delivery of his goods by canceling that trading unit or receive the proceeds of the transaction by selling to the market maker.
This simple feature should be considered very important because without defining or obtaining a commodity deposit certificate, oil can be physically received by purchasing and revoking the Commodity Fund, and one of the major concerns about the physical delivery of crude oil will be resolved in this way.
One of the important features of these funds is their simple start-up, ie assuming that there are 100 individuals (natural or legal) buyers by defining the minimum amount of investment, it is possible to start trading commodity funds and until the ceiling or maximum figure is reached, from It will be possible to attract financial resources.
*** The main advantages of government financing through commodity funds:
Extensive financing potential and presence of people taking into account global price fluctuations.
No need to guarantee the initial amount, taking into account the availability of base assets or crude oil
Creating a tool for individuals and legal entities to trade with real global signals including the free exchange rate (Sena) of the currency.
The potential for the actual sale of crude oil in rials to the private sector, which implies the presence of refineries in this process.
The possibility of the presence of foreign companies and the sale of crude oil in Rials and then its export, whose instructions in the current situation include the possibility of exporting crude oil in Rials.
Creating derivative contracts and defining futures for fund units that have great trading potential.
Serious increase in market depth through the simultaneous transactions of commodity fund units and its derivative contracts and the potential for attracting venture capital.
Using the experience of other countries in real distance from petrodollars as we see in similar transactions on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
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