After the end of the twelfth presidency, some traders believed that negotiation diplomacy would be replaced by other methods. Therefore, there was a Chinese introduction to the growth of the dollar in the early days of the government. But news and tweets from the president have sparked speculation about the government’s willingness to continue negotiations. This caused a change in currency expectations in society. This issue has shown itself in recent days. We will explain this issue below. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Changing society’s currency expectations under the pretext of political issues
The change in currency expectations in recent days stems from political events in Iran. In this regard, we should mention Amir Abdullahian’s talks with European officials. He has said that Iran is committed to returning to the Vienna talks. Amir Abdullahian has held a long meeting with influential officials in the negotiation process, which seems to have had positive results. Along with this issue, the main tweets about the readiness for negotiations have also leaked to the foreign exchange market. He tweeted that sanctions against the Iranian people should be lifted and that we support any diplomatic plan that achieves this goal. This readiness to negotiate eased the fever of the dollar and the exchange rate.
*** The role of economic developments in changing currency expectations
The outcome of recent political events and currents has led to a change in currency expectations. So that since yesterday, the free market dollar rate in backline transactions has decreased by 1.5 percent and has reached less than 25,300 tomans. It remains to be seen how long the dollar will continue to decline and what other markets, including the stock market, will react to tomorrow. On the other hand, the central bank has taken steps to reduce the dollar. The Nima system witnessed the supply of about $ 278 million in foreign currency remittances the next day in order to provide the country’s import currency. This trend has caused the change of currency expectations in the society to happen more quickly. About $ 131 million worth of trades were traded yesterday. Based on the transactions, the weighted average dollar exchange rate was 226298 Rials.
*** Dollar reversal in the open market
According to the latest data received from dollar transactions in the open market, with a decrease of 100 Tomans, it was sold for 25 thousand and 630 Tomans, and the Euro was offered at a price of 30 thousand and 270 Tomans with a decrease of 120 Tomans. The selling rate of the dollar on the national exchange board was announced as 25,266 Tomans. Emami coin increased by 124 thousand Tomans, reached 11 million and 271 thousand Tomans. Each gram of 18-carat gold was sold at a price of 1,87,800 tomans, with a drop of 4,600 tomans. An ounce of gold traded at $ 1,762.95 in global markets. In the market yesterday, the price of UAE dirham remittances increased by 2 Tomans, 6 thousand and 154 Tomans. Chinese Yuan remittances increased by 7 Tomans, 3,485 Tomans were sold. Turkish Lira remittances decreased by 32 Tomans, 2,617 Tomans. Released.
*** Changing stable currency expectations is the solution to economic problems
In the Iranian economy, all periods with high inflation rates have been accompanied by exchange rate shocks. Liquidity never affects the inflation rate one by one, and the effect of liquidity on the inflation rate is about 10 to 15%. In the last two decades, the relationship between liquidity and inflation has been severed in more than 70% of the world economy, and the growth of liquidity is said to affect financial markets. The key factor in the sharp rise in prices in the last 3 years is two consecutive currency price shocks that some market makers have imposed on the market. For three years, Iran’s economy has been in a destructive cycle of “rising exchange rates and rising prices and rising foreign exchange prices again.” If the thirteenth government does not make the dollar real (does not fall), it will continue to face high inflation rates for at least the next three years, which is beyond the public’s tolerance.
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